Cannabis sales for 2021 will near $31 billion, an increase of 41% over 2020 sales, according to global cannabis market research firm BDSA in an update of its cannabis market forecast, a five-year rolling global forecast by country, state, province, channel and category.
As cannabis markets begin to open up and the market increases, cannabidiol (CBD) manufacturers and retailers could see a similar positive effect on consumption of CBD products, especially if the rise in cannabis sales brings comfort to consumers still reticent about availing themselves of CBD’s benefits.
BDSA also forecasts global cannabis sales to grow from $30.6 billion in 2021 to $62.1 billion in 2026, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 15%.
“The cannabis industry continues to show exceedingly rapid growth, particularly within the U.S. market,” said BDSA Vice President of Insights and Analytics Kelly Nielsen. “New markets, both medical and adult-use, are developing at a faster pace than observed in the past, and states are transitioning from medical-only to fully legal in a shorter time frame.”
The industry continues to thrive, Nielsen said, with sales exceeding expectations in several markets. Compounded with more states passing legislation to legalize cannabis, those factors are driving the increase in BDSA’s outlook for the industry.
“The expansion and growth of adult-use markets in the U.S. continue to be the driving force of global cannabis sales,” Nielsen continued.
BDSA forecasts cannabis sales in the U.S. to surpass $24 billion in 2021, a growth of 38% over 2020’s sales, and anticipates the U.S. to reach $47.6 billion in 2026, a CAGR of 14%. Drivers of U.S. growth include:
- Mature markets in the United States continued to see strong growth during the first half of 2021. California, the largest legal cannabis market in the world, saw the largest gain, growing 25%.
- New markets are developing at an ever-increasing rate. Illinois and Massachusetts contributed more than double the spending in the first half of 2021 versus 2020, while Arizona became the fastest state on record to transition from medical-only to adult-use.
- Emerging markets drive growth in out-years and are representative of a long-term trend. Emerging markets include Connecticut, New Jersey, New York, New Mexico, Virginia, and South Dakota.
Cannabis sales in Canada will total $4 billion in 2021 and are forecast to grow to $6.7 billion in 2026, a CAGR of 11%. Ontario, the largest cannabis market in Canada, is spearheading this boost, growing by almost 90% year over year in 2021.
BDSA forecasts international sales will reach nearly $7.9 billion in 2026, up from $1.7 billion in 2021. International sales continue to be driven by medical cannabis markets in Mexico, Germany and the U.K.
Headquartered in Boulder, Colo., BDSA is the premier global cannabis market research firm helping businesses improve revenues, reduce innovation risk, and prioritize market expansion. The company provides a holistic understanding of the cannabis market through data, analytics, and insights from retail sales data, consumer research, and market forecasts. To learn more please visit www.bdsa.com.